Anticipating the 157th Belmont Stakes: A Closer Look at the Contenders and Strategies
The upcoming Belmont Stakes, scheduled for Saturday at Saratoga Race Course, is poised to deliver a thrilling conclusion to this year’s Triple Crown series. This edition features a highly anticipated rematch between Kentucky Derby victor Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes champion Journalism, both eager to claim victory in the final jewel of the Triple Crown. Adding an extra layer of excitement is Baeza, who finished third in the Derby and arrives at the race well-rested, with the potential to make a significant impact.
With a modest field of only eight horses-two of which are expected to be heavy favorites-smart betting becomes essential. Here, we explore key factors and strategic insights to help you make informed wagers before placing your bets.
Form and Readiness: Baeza’s Peak Performance
Following a commendable third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby-where he made a strong rally from 15th position-Baeza chose to skip the Preakness Stakes to focus on preparing for the Belmont. His recent performances underscore his rising form; his Brisnet speed figures have steadily increased from 79 to 88, then to 98, and most recently to an impressive 107. Notably, he posted a 102 on a muddy track during the Derby, demonstrating resilience and adaptability. His career-best 107 in the April 5 Grade I Santa Anita Derby highlights his capacity to compete at the highest level. Additionally, a recent six-furlong workout at Santa Anita in 1:12.40 indicates he’s in excellent physical condition and ready to perform.
Pedigree-wise, Baeza boasts notable bloodlines. He is a half-brother to Mage, the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner, and Dornoch, the 2024 Belmont Stakes champion. Both are offspring of his dam, Puca. Should Baeza triumph, Puca would become the only mare to produce three Triple Crown race winners in consecutive years, cementing her legacy in racing history.
Race Dynamics: The Impact of Early Pace
The race could see a brisk early tempo, especially with two confirmed front-runners-Rodriguez and Crudo-likely to set the pace. A fast early pace often benefits horses with strong closing ability, as it can create opportunities for those positioned to make late runs. However, the presence of only two front-runners makes it less certain that the pace will be quick enough to favor deep closers.
In my view, Rodriguez, who has demonstrated speed against tougher competition, is preferable over Crudo for the lead. Baeza, known for his tactical versatility, is well-suited to sit just behind the front-runners, conserving energy for a sustained finish. If the early fractions are swift, horses like Journalism and Uncaged might find themselves pressed to keep pace, potentially diminishing their late kick. Conversely, it’s unlikely that horses such as Sovereignty and Hill Road, who rely on closing, will be able to rally from too far back if the pace is aggressive.
Weather Considerations: Rain and Track Conditions
Forecasts from AccuWeather predict approximately three hours of rain at Saratoga on Saturday, with a 26% chance of thunderstorms. Should the track become muddy or sloppy, it will influence race tactics and horse performance. Horses with proven ability on off tracks and tactical speed will have an advantage, as deep closers may struggle with footing and reduced visibility caused by kickback.
In such conditions, Baeza’s style as a stalker could serve him well, allowing him to stay just off the leaders and avoid the worst of the kickback while conserving energy for a late surge. Similarly, horses like Journalism and Uncaged, who can press the pace, might benefit from a moderate early tempo, especially if the track conditions slow down the race. Horses that excel on wet surfaces, such as Uncaged-who has won twice on muddy tracks, including at Saratoga-could be key players if the weather turns unfavorable.
Smart Betting Strategies: Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas
Given the small size of this field and the presence of a couple of short-priced favorites, maximizing value requires careful selection of exotic bets. I recommend focusing primarily on exactas-betting on the top two finishers in the correct order-particularly with Rodriguez and Baeza, who are most likely to finish at the top. For trifectas and superfectas, smaller, targeted wagers are advisable to manage risk and potential payout.
My approach involves selecting horses with the best chance to be competitive: Rodriguez, Baeza, Journalism, and Heart of Honor. For the exacta, I look for pools that offer favorable payouts-ideally, those that reach a level worth the risk. If the payout pools for Journalism in the win or place positions are insufficient, I exclude him from my exacta bets.
For trifectas, I plan to structure my tickets as follows:
- $1 trifecta: 3 (Rodriguez) / 6 (Baeza) / 7 and 8 (Journalism and Heart of Honor) – total $2
- $1 trifecta: 6 (Baeza) / 3 (Rodriguez) / 7 and 8 – total $2
- $1 trifecta: 7 and 8 (Journalism and Heart of Honor) / 6 / 3 – total $2
For the superfecta, I recommend a “double exacta box” strategy, which involves backing up your exacta with a superfecta that includes the next two most likely horses, boxed in the third and fourth positions. This approach maximizes potential returns if your top choices hit the board.
Sample superfecta wager:
- $1 superfecta: 3 and 6 (Rodriguez and Baeza) / 3 and 6 / 7 and 8 (Journalism and Heart of Honor) / 7 and 8 – totaling $4
By employing these strategies, bettors can optimize their chances of a profitable day at Saratoga, regardless of the race’s outcome. Remember, in a race with a small field and high stakes, disciplined betting and strategic ticket construction are key to maximizing your potential payout.
