Reimagining the Future of College Football Conferences: A Deep Dive into the Mountain West and Beyond

Every thirty years or so, the landscape of college football in the western United States undergoes a significant transformation, often driven by shifts in conference alignments and strategic reorganization. Historically, these realignments have been prompted by schools seeking more competitive balance, better financial opportunities, or regional cohesion. The cycle continues into 2026, promising a fresh chapter for the Mountain West Conference and its neighboring leagues.

Historical Context of Conference Restructuring

The formation of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) in 1962 exemplifies this recurring pattern. Schools like Arizona, Arizona State, BYU, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming banded together, citing their strength and desire for a more competitive environment. Initially, the conference included teams such as Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State, which later transitioned into what became the Pac-8. Similarly, the 1998 creation of the Mountain West Conference emerged from schools feeling overshadowed by the sprawling 16-team mega-WAC, leading to a more focused and competitive league structure.

Fast forward to today, the impending collapse of the Pac-12 has ignited a flurry of strategic moves, including the potential duplication of the Mountain West’s structure and the introduction of tiered promotion and relegation systems-concepts more common in European soccer but increasingly discussed in American college sports. This evolving landscape underscores the importance of adaptability and strategic foresight among member institutions.

The 2026 Outlook: A Tale of Two Mountain Wests

With the anticipated disintegration of the Pac-12, the Mountain West is poised to undergo a significant transformation. The conference is exploring innovative models, including tiered promotion and relegation, to maintain competitiveness and financial viability. Meanwhile, some schools, like Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State, are set to join a reconfigured Pac-12, creating a hybrid league that could be termed “MWC Plus.” This shift leaves the remaining Mountain West schools in a position to craft a resilient and competitive league for 2026 and beyond.

Despite these upheavals, the Mountain West has demonstrated resilience. The conference’s ability to retain key programs and adapt to new realities suggests a promising future, even as the broader college football ecosystem continues to evolve rapidly.

2024 Season Recap: Highlights and Surprises

In the 2024 season, Boise State and UNLV emerged as the dominant forces within the conference. Boise State, with its 12-0 record against non-College Football Playoff opponents, showcased a roster deep with talent, led by standout players like Ashton Jeanty. UNLV, with an 11-1 record, demonstrated significant progress under new coaching, leveraging a roster packed with blue-chip talent and a strategic approach that hints at future dominance.

Meanwhile, teams like Colorado State and Nevada faced challenges, finishing with less impressive records but showing flashes of potential. The bottom of the standings was characterized by programs still adjusting to coaching changes, roster turnover, and the ongoing quest for consistency.

Team Continuity and Player Development

Understanding team stability is crucial for predicting future success. Boise State, for example, returns a significant portion of its starting lineup, including key players like quarterback Maddux Madsen and star defenders. This continuity provides a solid foundation for 2025, with the potential for the Broncos to contend for the conference title once again.

In contrast, programs like UNLV and San Jose State are undergoing significant roster overhauls, with new coaching staff and transfer portal additions shaping their outlooks. These teams’ success will depend heavily on how quickly new players adapt and integrate into their systems.

2025 Projections: Who Will Lead the Pack?

Looking ahead to 2025, Boise State is widely favored to maintain its dominance, thanks to its experienced roster and strategic recruiting. The Broncos are projected to finish near the top of the conference, with a strong chance of returning to the College Football Playoff picture.

Meanwhile, UNLV, under new head coach Dan Mullen, is expected to make significant strides. With a roster loaded with seasoned blue-chip transfers and a proven coaching pedigree, the Rebels could challenge for the conference crown, especially if their new offensive and defensive schemes click early in the season.

Other programs like San Jose State and Fresno State are viewed as potential dark horses, capable of exceeding expectations if their young talent develops rapidly and their coaching staff executes well.

Key Matchups to Watch in 2025

Several games are poised to be pivotal in shaping the conference race. Notably:

• UCLA at UNLV (Sept. 6): A high-profile non-conference clash that will reveal how quickly UNLV’s new roster can gel against a top-tier opponent.
• Boise State at Notre Dame (Oct. 4): An early-season test for Boise State against a perennial national powerhouse, offering insights into their national competitiveness.
• Air Force at UNLV (Oct. 11): A crucial conference matchup that could influence the league standings and playoff considerations.
• UNLV at Colorado State (Nov. 8): A game that could determine the Rebels’ standing within the conference.
• Fresno State at San Jose State (Nov. 29): A rivalry game with conference implications, especially for bowl positioning.

Contenders for the Conference Title and Beyond