U.S. Economic Strength and Clearer Stablecoin Regulations Set to Boost Bitcoin, While Altcoins Face Greater Uncertainty
Updated June 12, 2025, 6:01 p.m. | Originally published June 12, 2025, 5:16 p.m.
Revitalized Economic Indicators and Regulatory Progress Fuel Positive Market Outlook
According to a recent analysis by Coinbase Research, the second half of 2025 is poised to see a more optimistic trajectory for the cryptocurrency sector, driven by a resilient macroeconomic environment, rising corporate interest in digital assets, and enhanced regulatory transparency.
Following a tumultuous first quarter characterized by a temporary contraction in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and trade tensions, recent economic data suggest a rebound. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has revised its forecast upward to a 3.8% quarterly growth rate as of early June, a significant improvement from earlier projections. This positive shift, coupled with anticipated reductions in Federal Reserve interest rates and a more moderate trade policy stance, has alleviated recession concerns and bolstered investor confidence.
Furthermore, the diminishing dominance of the U.S. dollar and the increasing appeal of cryptocurrencies as hedges against inflation could enhance Bitcoin’s attractiveness, even if long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high. Conversely, altcoins may struggle unless specific catalysts-such as the approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or major protocol upgrades-materialize to drive their momentum.
Meanwhile, institutional adoption continues to accelerate, with publicly traded companies increasingly incorporating cryptocurrencies into their balance sheets. This trend has been facilitated by a 2024 regulatory change permitting “mark-to-market” accounting for digital assets, which has made crypto holdings more attractive for corporate reporting. However, this expansion also introduces systemic risks; firms financing crypto acquisitions through convertible debt might be compelled to liquidate holdings if refinancing options become scarce or market prices decline sharply.
Regulatory Developments: Clarifying the Path Forward
Regulatory progress is expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the future landscape of digital assets. The Senate recently advanced the bipartisan GENIUS Act, a stablecoin-focused bill now progressing to the House of Representatives. Additionally, the proposed CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory responsibilities of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), providing much-needed clarity for issuers and investors alike.
In parallel, the SEC is reviewing over 80 applications for cryptocurrency ETFs, including proposals for multi-asset funds, staking products, and altcoin-based offerings. Some decisions could be announced as early as July, with the remainder expected by October, signaling a potential shift toward broader institutional acceptance.
Overall, Bitcoin is positioned to benefit from both macroeconomic tailwinds and regulatory advancements in the latter half of 2025. Meanwhile, the outlook for altcoins remains more complex, contingent upon navigating an evolving regulatory environment and liquidity landscape, as highlighted in the Coinbase report.
Disclaimer: Portions of this article were generated with AI assistance and subsequently reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and compliance with our standards. For more details, please refer to CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.
About the Author
Tom Carreras specializes in market analysis, Bitcoin mining, and the adoption of cryptocurrencies across Latin America. Holding a degree in English literature from McGill University, Tom is often based in Costa Rica. He owns Bitcoin exceeding the $1,000 disclosure threshold on CoinDesk.
