Washington Commanders: A Rising Force or a Fluke of Fortune?
The Washington Commanders are often viewed as an ascending team, boasting a savvy front office, a coaching staff with a clear vision, and a promising young quarterback at the helm. However, expectations for replicating or surpassing their impressive 12-win regular season from last year should be tempered. Most betting outlets currently project their win total around 9½, factoring in the team’s evolving roster and the increased difficulty of their schedule, which now features tougher opponents in a second-place rotation.
Assessing the Role of Luck in Last Season’s Success
While the team’s talent and strategy are undeniable, a significant part of their previous success may have been influenced by an element often overlooked: luck. The Commanders’ breakout campaign was not solely a product of skill but also a series of fortunate breaks that may not be easily replicated. This goes beyond the common narratives of last-minute heroics or close game outcomes; it delves into statistical analyses that quantify the impact of chance on team performance.
Beyond the Surface: Deep Dive into Fortunate Breaks
In analyzing last season, it’s important to recognize that the Commanders’ record in close games-9 wins and 4 losses-placed them among the league’s most successful in one-score contests, ranking sixth in winning percentage. Additionally, they ranked as the fifth-healthiest team based on the “adjusted games lost” metric, which evaluates the significance of injuries sustained. Yet, these metrics only scratch the surface of their fortunate streaks.
The NFL’s “Luck Dashboard”: Quantifying Randomness
One of the most revealing tools in understanding team luck is a “luck dashboard” developed by NFL data scientist Tom Bliss. This analytical model identifies four key game scenarios where outcomes are heavily influenced by randomness or opponent errors, measuring their effect on win probability:
- Opponents dropping passes on offense
- Opponents missing interceptions on defense
- Opponents missing field goals
- Recovery of fumbles by either team
According to Bliss’s data, the 2024 Commanders have been the luckiest team since the inception of this tracking in 2022, with no close competitors. A prime example is a play during a December game against the New Orleans Saints, where tight end Juwan Johnson dropped what would have been a game-winning two-point conversion. Despite tight coverage by cornerback Noah Igbinoghene, Johnson’s inability to secure the catch was a fortunate break for Washington.
Perceptions of Luck Among Players and Coaches
Head coach Dan Quinn acknowledges the role of luck but emphasizes its uncontrollable nature. “There’s an element of unpredictability in football that’s part of what makes the game exciting,” he remarked. Yet, he downplays the significance of specific fortunate plays, suggesting that effort and execution are more critical than chance.
Other examples of luck include a dropped pass by the Steelers on a fake punt and a missed 56-yard field goal attempt by the Falcons as regulation expired. Interestingly, Washington’s most successful recent season was catalyzed by a series of fortunate events, such as a key injury to the Giants’ kicker early in a game, which led to a crucial fourth-down conversion and ultimately a game-winning field goal for the Commanders.
What Does Luck Mean for the Future?
Historical data indicates that luck is highly variable from season to season. For instance, the New York Giants were the luckiest team in 2022 but ranked fourth in luck the following year. Conversely, the Green Bay Packers led in luck in 2023 but were the unluckiest in 2024. This inconsistency suggests that teams should not rely on luck to sustain success.
NFL analyst Tom Bliss notes, “There’s no consistent correlation between a team’s luck metrics across seasons. Therefore, the Commanders should anticipate a neutral luck outlook heading into next year, with an expected net win probability from luck close to zero.”
Attitudes Toward Luck Within the Commanders’ Locker Room
Players’ perspectives on luck vary. Many believe that luck exists in their daily lives but are hesitant to attribute game outcomes to it. Instead, they emphasize preparation, effort, and mental resilience. For example, backup quarterback Marcus Mariota attributes close-game results to divine intervention rather than luck, believing that a higher power provides what each player needs for their journey.
Offensive lineman Andrew Wylie acknowledges the role of fortunate moments, stating, “We definitely had some lucky breaks last year. But those moments often come from consistent practice and preparation.”
Similarly, guard Nick Allegretti suggests that being well-prepared increases the likelihood of fortunate outcomes: “The most successful teams are often the luckiest because they’re ready for those moments.”
The Power of Mindset and Confidence
Team members agree that belief and mental attitude influence their performance. Center Tyler Biadasz humorously referenced quarterback Jayden Daniels, implying that confidence and a positive mindset can significantly boost a team’s “luck factor.” Wylie added that a player’s confidence can create a self-fulfilling cycle of success, reinforcing the idea that mental preparedness is a key component of winning.
Conclusion: Luck as a Variable, Not a Strategy
While the numbers suggest that the Commanders may not experience the same level of fortunate breaks in the upcoming season, the team’s players and coaches believe that their success is rooted in preparation, mindset, and resilience. Ultimately, luck remains an unpredictable element-one that can influence outcomes but should not be relied upon as a foundation for sustained success. As the NFL continues to evolve, teams that combine skill, strategy, and mental toughness will likely outperform those relying on fortunate bounces alone.
