Just shy of a week since the conclusion of the 2025 Cannes Film Festival, the event’s most esteemed honors have been awarded, press conferences wrapped up, and the iconic fashion statements-once again, daringly minimal-have made their return to the spotlight. Meanwhile, Hollywood’s top publicists are already strategizing for the upcoming awards season, focusing on crafting compelling Oscar campaigns for the standout films and performances that emerged from the festival.
Although the 98th Academy Awards are still over nine months away, the influence of Cannes on the Oscar race remains undeniable. Last year’s Palme d’Or winner, Anora, not only captivated audiences but also went on to claim the Best Picture Oscar. Additionally, two of the nine nominees in the Best Live Action Short category, Emilia Pérez and The Substance, premiered at Cannes. In the Best Director category, three of the five contenders debuted their films at the festival, including winner Sean Baker. Over a third of the acting nominees had previously walked the Croisette before arriving on the Oscar red carpet. Notably, Mikey Madison from Anora and Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez secured acting awards, underscoring Cannes’ role as a launchpad for Oscar success. This remarkable pattern highlights how early in the awards cycle Cannes can shape the narrative, especially given its position at the start of the season.
This year’s Cannes lineup features a more subdued selection of films-more introspective and contemplative compared to the festival’s previous high-energy entries like Anora and The Substance. While these quieter films may not generate the same immediate buzz, several are poised to make a significant impact across multiple categories, from Best Picture and Screenplay to the fiercely competitive acting races.
Below, we explore the key contenders currently gaining momentum, alongside those that faced challenges after a less-than-anticipated Cannes debut, offering a fresh perspective on the evolving Oscar landscape.
From Cannes to Oscar: The Potential of It Modified into Right an Accident
As Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi claimed the Palme d’Or for It Modified into Right an Accident, speculation immediately arose: could this surreal comedy, inspired by Panahi’s own imprisonment for alleged “propaganda,” follow in the footsteps of Parasite and Anora to secure the Best Picture Oscar? The answer remains uncertain. The film is a powerful testament to resilience and survival, as Juliette Binoche noted, “it emanates from a spirit of resistance,” making it a compelling winner for Cannes. However, its intimate, ensemble-driven narrative diverges from the typical grand-scale Oscar winner, which may influence its chances in the Best Picture race.
Nevertheless, Panahi’s reputation as a beloved auteur with a remarkable personal story and a history of defying odds suggests he could secure a spot on the Best Director shortlist. His sharp, humorous screenplay also stands a good chance of earning a nomination for Best Original Screenplay. The film’s potential to be Iran’s official Oscar entry is complicated by its production circumstances-made without government approval, it was co-produced by France and Luxembourg. While France’s submission seems unlikely, Luxembourg might consider it, echoing last year’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, which was submitted by Germany and received a nomination. If It Modified into Right an Accident is submitted as Iran’s entry, it could further bolster its Oscar prospects.
Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Designate: A Contender for Major Awards
While Sentimental Designate was expected to win the Palme d’Or, it ultimately settled for the runner-up prize, the Grand Prix. Despite this, the film is already making waves in the Oscar race, with Trier’s previous work, The Worst Person in the World, earning nominations for Best International Feature and Best Original Screenplay. His latest effort, a nuanced family saga with a subtle humor and emotional depth, has garnered critical acclaim and a record-breaking 19-minute standing ovation at Cannes-one of the longest in festival history. Given its themes of generational change and human connection, it aligns well with recent Oscar favorites like The Everything Everywhere All at Once, CODA, and Parasite.
Language could be a hurdle, as the film is primarily in Norwegian with some English, but Trier’s reputation and the film’s universal themes make it a strong contender for Best International Feature and possibly for Best Picture. The acting ensemble, led by Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, and Elle Fanning, also offers promising opportunities for nominations in acting categories. In particular, Reinsve’s compelling performance could land her on the Best Actress shortlist, while supporting roles by Skarsgård and Fanning might also be recognized.
Should It Modified into Right an Accident not be submitted as Norway’s official entry, Sentimental Designate could very well claim the Best International Feature Oscar, further elevating Trier’s standing in the upcoming awards season.
Jennifer Lawrence’s Resurgence: A Possible Surprise in the Acting Races
In a year where Cannes’ top releases are evenly split between potential Oscar contenders and more divisive entries, Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in Lynne Ramsay’s Die My Adore has generated considerable buzz. Her intense portrayal of a spiraling mother has dazzled some critics with its raw energy, while others remain divided. Lawrence’s reputation as a formidable Oscar campaigner and her widespread popularity keep her in the conversation, especially given her previous Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook over a decade ago. However, her loss to Nadia Melliti for the Best Actress prize at Cannes’s top acting award suggests her path to an Oscar nomination might be more complicated this time around.
Other supporting performances, like Sissy Spacek’s in Eleanor the Huge, are also noteworthy, but the competition remains fierce. If Lawrence manages to secure a nomination, she could be the sole representative for her film, similar to how Ana de Armas was the only nominee for Blonde last year or Kristen Stewart for Spencer in 2022.
Paul Mescal’s The History of Sound: A Disappointing Turn
Image: Gwen Capistran
After garnering attention for his role in Gladiator II and upcoming projects like Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet and Richard Linklater’s Merrily We Roll Along, Paul Mescal was highly anticipated at Cannes for Oliver Hermanus’s The History of Sound. Early reviews praised his deeply affecting performance, suggesting awards potential. Unfortunately, the film itself failed to resonate, receiving only a modest five-minute standing ovation and failing to make a significant impact at the festival. Its bleak, restrained tone and political content may hinder its Oscar prospects, and it’s unlikely to secure nominations in major categories.
Given this lukewarm reception, Mescal and his co-star Josh O’Connor might be better served focusing on more substantial projects that could elevate their awards chances in the future.
Brazil’s Oscar Hope: The Secret Agent
Brazil continues to demonstrate its strength in international cinema, with I’m Still Here winning the Best International Feature at Cannes and earning a Best Foreign Language Film Oscar nomination last year. This year, the country’s hopes rest on The Secret Agent, directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho, which took home awards for Best Director and Best Actor (Wagner Moura). The film’s experimental style and political themes set it apart from the more mainstream I’m Still Here, but Moura’s compelling performance and the film’s festival success make it a strong contender for both the Best International Feature and possibly a supporting actor nod for Moura.
With its distinct approach and international recognition, The Secret Agent could be Brazil’s next big Oscar success, competing alongside other global breakout films like Germany’s Sound of Falling and Spain’s Sirât, both of which garnered festival prizes.
Netflix’s Nouvelle Imprecise: A French New Wave Homage
Netflix’s latest international Oscar hopeful, Nouvelle Imprecise, departs from last year’s divisive Emilia Pérez. This black-and-white tribute to the French New Wave explores the making of Jean-Luc Godard’s Breathless. Its charming, nostalgic tone and less controversial nature make it a more promising candidate for the Oscar shortlist. With a generous marketing budget, Netflix is well-positioned to push this film into the race, though its ultimate success remains uncertain.
Supporting Roles and Surprising Opportunities
Veteran actress June Squibb, at 95, continues to impress, delivering a memorable performance in Scarlett Johansson’s directorial debut, Eleanor the Huge. Her deadpan humor and seasoned presence could earn her a supporting actress nod, especially in a less crowded year. Similarly, rising stars like Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Marina de Tavira are poised to make waves in supporting categories, with the potential for unexpected nominations that could shake up the Oscar lineup.
Unlikely Nominations: The Case of Gladiator II
After Denzel Washington’s snub for his commanding role in Gladiator II, many expected his performance in Spike Lee’s Perfect 2 Lowest to revive his Oscar hopes. Unfortunately, the film’s lighthearted tone and lack of awards-caliber material mean it’s unlikely to make a splash in the nominations. Despite some entertaining sequences, it doesn’t seem to have the gravitas or industry backing needed for serious Oscar consideration.
The Future of Eddington: A Risky Prospect
Image: Gwen Capistran
Director Ari Aster’s Eddington, a Western set during the COVID pandemic, was initially seen as a bold, unconventional choice for Oscar contention. Starring Joaquin Phoenix, Emma Stone, Austin Butler, and Pedro Pascal, it promised a provocative exploration of contemporary politics and societal upheaval. However, its mixed reception at Cannes-only a modest ovation-suggests it may struggle to find favor with Oscar voters. Its challenging tone and political themes could hinder its chances, making it a long shot for major nominations this awards season.
