Veteran broadcaster says seats could start to fall to Reform “big time” at the next election based on current polling.
By Katie Harris, Senior Political Correspondent
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and journalist Andrew Neil (Image: GETTY/PA)
Andrew Neil predicted that seats could “collapse Reform’s way, big time” at the next election after a poll gave Nigel Farage’s party a major lead. The Find Out Now survey put the insurgent party on 32%, 11 points clear of Labour which is second on 21%.
The Tories are third with 16%, while the Lib Dems are fourth on 14% and the Greens take 11% in the poll of 2,501 people carried out on May 21. Veteran broadcaster Mr Neil said Britain may be “on the cusp of a major upheaval” ahead of the next general election due in 2029.
Mr Neil wrote on X: “When Reform gets to 30% or a bit above and the other votes are split between four parties, all with pretty low shares, the parliamentary seats start to collapse Reform’s way, big time.
“And polling seems to be settling down to roughly these vote shares, though Reform could rise a bit more while Labour and Tories decline a bit more.
“If this is the new direction of British politics we are on the cusp of a major upheaval.”
It comes as Reform has taken the lead in a series of national opinion polls in recent months.
The insurgent party has been riding high in the polls following its success in the local elections.
When Reform gets to 30% or a bit above and the other votes are split between four parties, all with pretty low shares, the parliamentary seats start to collapse Reform’s way, big time. And polling seems to be settling down to roughly these vote shares, though Reform could rise a… https://t.co/ercwgS1aIN
— Andrew Neil (@afneil) May 27, 2025
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Mr Farage insisted “something extraordinary is happening” as he gave a press conference in London today.
The Reform leader announced his party would restore winter fuel payments for pensioners in full and scrap the two-child benefit cap as he moves to outflank Labour with its traditional working class supporters.
Speaking in response to a question which asked whether Reform could go from a handful of MPs to a parliamentary majority, he said: “History would suggest the answer to your question is no. Circumstances would suggest the answer is yes.
“Something extraordinary is happening; the collapse of confidence in two political parties that are pretty much merged.”
