Anticipating the Semifinal Clash at Roland Garros: Sabalenka vs. Swiatek

By Simon Cambers | June 3, 2025, 1:26 PM ET

PARIS – Despite their recent dominance in the tennis world, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have yet to face each other on the challenging clay courts of a Grand Slam. Their upcoming semifinal at the French Open marks a significant milestone, as this will be their first encounter in this prestigious tournament, promising an electrifying showdown.

Historically, these two powerhouses have met 12 times, with Swiatek holding a commanding 8-4 lead overall, including a 5-1 advantage on clay surfaces. Their most recent match, however, was won by Sabalenka, who has shown promising form this spring, capturing the Madrid title and reaching the finals in Stuttgart. This recent momentum could be pivotal in their upcoming clash.

Swiatek, a four-time French Open champion, experienced mixed results this season-advancing to the semifinals in Madrid but falling early in Stuttgart and Rome. Her recent performances have seen her drop out of the top four rankings, which adds an element of unpredictability to her pursuit of a fifth title here. Conversely, Sabalenka’s spring surge has positioned her as a formidable contender, eager to claim her first Grand Slam crown.

Strategies Favoring Sabalenka’s Victory

Sabalenka enters the semifinals as the world’s top-ranked player, having advanced without dropping a set until her quarterfinal match against Zheng Qinwen, which went to a tiebreak. Her recent victory over Zheng, a notable comeback after losing to her in Rome last month, underscores her resilience and readiness. With Swiatek not yet at her peak this year, Sabalenka’s aggressive style could give her the upper hand.

One of Sabalenka’s key strengths has evolved into a major asset-her powerful serve. She has fired 25 aces across her five matches so far, and her aggressive return game puts constant pressure on her opponents. Her tendency to stand close to the baseline, often inside the court, allows her to dominate exchanges and challenge Swiatek’s serve, which has shown some vulnerabilities this season, especially on the ad side.

Additionally, Sabalenka is highly motivated to add the Roland Garros trophy to her collection, which already includes titles from the Australian Open and the US Open. Her determination was evident after a slightly shaky start in her first match, but she quickly regained her composure and showcased her fighting spirit. This mental toughness could be the decisive factor in her quest for her first French Open final appearance.

Why Swiatek Could Secure the Win

Swiatek’s track record at Roland Garros is nothing short of extraordinary. With a 40-2 record at this tournament, her winning percentage is among the best in history-only surpassed by Rafael Nadal, who reached 40 wins faster. Swiatek has claimed the title four times and remains unbeaten in her last 26 matches at the French Open, second only to Chris Evert’s 29 consecutive wins from 1979 to 1981. If she triumphs again, she would become the first woman to win four consecutive titles in the Open Era.

While her overall season has been somewhat inconsistent by her standards, Swiatek’s performance on clay remains unmatched. Her recent victory over Elena Rybakina, coming back from a 6-1, 2-0 deficit, exemplifies her resilience and ability to perform under pressure. Despite a less dominant year overall, her mastery on this surface and her strategic adaptability make her a formidable opponent.

Her favorable head-to-head record against Sabalenka (5-1) adds confidence, and her ability to elevate her game when it matters most suggests she can produce her best tennis in this critical match. If she maintains her composure and executes her game plan, she stands a very good chance of advancing to the final.

Predicting the Outcome

This semifinal echoes the classic narratives of past years when Rafael Nadal, battling for the top spot, often found a way to reclaim his dominance at Roland Garros-though Novak Djokovic has also posed a significant challenge. The outcome hinges on whether Swiatek can perform at her peak; her ability to control the match and exploit Sabalenka’s occasional lapses will be crucial.

Both players have shown vulnerabilities on clay-Sabalenka’s serve can be inconsistent, and Swiatek’s return game has been tested this season. However, her recent display against Rybakina indicates she is rediscovering her ability to solve complex problems on court. Given her familiarity with the surface and her mental toughness, Swiatek has a strong chance to advance if she plays her best tennis.