Strategic NFL Futures Bets to Consider Before Training Camp Kickoff

As the NFL offseason draws to a close, now presents a prime opportunity for bettors to leverage futures markets before the excitement of training camp and preseason games influence the odds. From underdog teams with potential to established contenders, early betting can offer significant value-if you know where to focus. Whether you’re aiming for a long-shot payout or a high-confidence wager, I’ve examined the current landscape to highlight five futures bets that are worth locking in now.

Securing the NFC South Crown: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +100 or Better

Securing the division title is straightforward for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are well-positioned to claim their fifth straight NFC South championship. According to the latest implied power ratings based on May’s preseason point spreads, Tampa Bay stands out as the only team in the division projected to perform above average. And remarkably, the odds still favor them at plus-money, offering a compelling value.

The Buccaneers have maintained their core offensive unit, bringing back all 11 starters from last season, including key playmakers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. This continuity should translate into a consistent and potent offensive attack. Last season, Tampa Bay’s offense outperformed expectations by scoring seven additional points per game, ranking fourth in the league for overperformance, per TruMedia. The addition of first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, who Pro Football Focus suggests could become “the next great slot receiver,” is expected to further enhance their receiving options.

Defensively, Tampa Bay has made strategic moves by re-signing linebacker Lavonte David for his 14th season-he ranked 21st among linebackers last year-and acquiring edge rusher Haason Reddick, who generated 26 pressures over 241 pass-rush snaps in 2024, according to PFF. These improvements bolster a team that’s aiming to extend its dominance in the division.

Denver Broncos’ Path to the AFC West Title at +245 or Better

My confidence in the Denver Broncos extends beyond division victory; I see potential for them to surpass 9½ wins and even contend for the Super Bowl. However, the most attractive value lies in their divisional odds, which currently stand at +245 or better.

Since hiring head coach Sean Payton before the 2023 season, Denver has shown marked improvement-rising from five wins in 2022 to eight in 2023, and then to ten in 2024. With quarterback Bo Nix entering his second NFL season, further progress seems likely. Nix’s development has been impressive; after a slow start in his rookie year, his passer rating increased from 62.5 in the first four weeks to 103.2 from Week 5 onward, ranking seventh in the league during that span, per TruMedia. PFF also rated him as the 11th-best quarterback from Week 5 through the end of the season.

Denver’s defense has been bolstered by signing former San Francisco standouts Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw, adding to a secondary anchored by star corner Patrick Surtain II, who was ranked third among NFL cornerbacks in 2024. Hufanga, who missed most of last season due to wrist ligament injuries, could return to form as one of the league’s top safeties if healthy. Greenlaw, meanwhile, enters 2025 as PFF’s fifth-ranked linebacker.

Despite these improvements, the biggest obstacle remains the Kansas City Chiefs, who have dominated the AFC West with nine consecutive titles. The Chiefs’ offensive line faces challenges-trading away two-time All-Pro Joe Thuney and dealing with injuries to first-round pick Josh Simmons-and key players like tight end Travis Kelce are aging. These factors could open the door for Denver to challenge their supremacy.

Underestimating Baltimore: Betting on Fewer Than 11½ Wins at -110 or Better

The Baltimore Ravens face a tough early schedule, including games against the Bills, Lions, and Chiefs within the first four weeks. Historically, they’ve struggled at Arrowhead Stadium, with quarterback Lamar Jackson holding a 0-3 record there and no wins at Kansas City since their 2012 Super Bowl run. Based on current power ratings, there’s roughly a 53% chance the Ravens will start the season 2-2 or worse.

Most of Baltimore’s divisional games occur after their Week 7 bye, with critical matchups against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the final stretch. A poor start could make defending their division title difficult, especially considering the AFC North’s history-no team has won three consecutive titles since the division’s inception in 2002.

Another factor to consider is the aging of key offensive players. Running back Derrick Henry, who was instrumental in Baltimore’s offense in 2024, is 31 and approaching the age where production typically declines. Historical data shows that running backs over 30 who have carried the ball extensively and scored double-digit rushing touchdowns often see their productivity diminish in subsequent seasons, with players like Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, and Adrian Peterson experiencing notable declines after age 30.

Predicting a Bengals Downturn: Miss the Playoffs at +115 or Better

Despite boasting a potent offense led by quarterback Joe Burrow and receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Cincinnati Bengals have missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, finishing 9-8 in both 2023 and 2024. The primary issue has been their defense, which allowed three more points per game than expected last season, ranking 29th overall, according to TruMedia.

Offseason changes threaten to weaken their defensive front further-retirement of defensive end Sam Hubbard and a contract dispute with pass rusher Trey Hendrickson could diminish their pass rush. Additionally, their schedule is challenging, with six of eight games against teams projected to be above average, including five on the road. Notably, they face the Ravens on Thanksgiving night, a matchup they’ve lost in each of the past three seasons.

Detroit Lions’ MVP Candidate: Jared Goff at +3000

In recent years, the NFL MVP has consistently been awarded to quarterbacks from top-seeded teams-each of the past 12 winners played for a conference’s top two seeds. Currently, the leading contenders include quarterbacks from the Eagles, Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, and Lions. While most of these quarterbacks have odds of +1700 or shorter, Detroit’s Jared Goff stands out at +3000, offering a compelling value.

Despite some skepticism about Detroit-especially after losing both coordinators-Goff’s chances shouldn’t be overlooked. The Lions’ offense remains formidable, anchored by Pro Bowl talents like Jahmyr Gibbs, who led the league with 20 rushing touchdowns last season, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The team also addressed offensive line concerns by drafting Tate Ratledge and Miles Frazier, supplementing veteran Graham Glasgow, who allowed zero pressures on the quarterback last season, per PFF.

Given Detroit’s strong offensive core and the potential for Goff to lead a high-powered attack, betting on him for MVP at +3000 could prove to be a savvy move, especially considering the historical trend of quarterbacks from top teams winning the award.