Deciding the Future of the Washington Nationals: Ownership or Sale?
The Lerner family’s stewardship of the Washington Nationals stands at a crossroads: should they commit fully to building a competitive team or consider divesting altogether? With a looming labor dispute anticipated after the 2026 season, the family faces a critical decision within the next year that could shape the franchise’s trajectory for years to come.
To Invest or To Exit: Weighing the Options
On one hand, the Lerners could choose to deepen their investment, embracing the inherent risks of fielding a winning team in one of Major League Baseball’s largest markets. The stakes are high-building a contender requires substantial financial commitment, strategic planning, and patience.
Alternatively, they might opt to cash out, selling the franchise for approximately $2 billion-more than quadrupling their initial $450 million investment, which included borrowing $200 million and leveraging a publicly funded ballpark. Such a move would realize significant profit, but at the cost of relinquishing long-term influence over the team’s future.
The Emotional and Strategic Significance of Ownership
My personal view leans toward the Lerners maintaining ownership. The family’s deep roots in Washington, D.C., and the legacy of Ted Lerner-who led the team to its first World Series victory in nearly a century-are invaluable. Continuity and a sense of community connection are vital ingredients for sustained franchise success.
The Current State of the Nationals: A Rebuilding Challenge
However, the team’s recent performance paints a bleak picture. Now entering their sixth consecutive season with a winning percentage below .440, the Nationals are navigating a phase typically reserved for expansion teams or historic underperformers like the 1950s Washington Senators. This prolonged downturn risks turning into a full-blown collapse unless decisive action is taken.
Strategic Moves for a Competitive Comeback
What should the Nationals’ ownership do to restore their stature in the league’s seventh-largest market? The answer isn’t straightforward, especially after recent upheavals-firing key figures like team president Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez has left the roster in a developmental phase, with young players mentoring other young players. The upcoming trade deadline may further deplete veteran presence, complicating the rebuild.
Yet, a clear path exists if the franchise commits to a serious overhaul: significantly increasing investment in player development, scouting, and payroll by the 2027 season.
Scaling Up: Doubling Resources for a Competitive Edge
Imagine expanding your coaching staff from three to six and your training staff from one to two-this mirrors the staffing levels of top-tier organizations that employ up to 11 coaches and three trainers. Similarly, doubling the number of scouts from five to ten would enhance talent acquisition, especially considering that the Nationals once employed 14 scouts at the major league level.
Such investments are crucial for making informed trades and building a robust roster capable of competing at the highest level. Smaller-market teams like the Tampa Bay Rays demonstrate that strategic resource allocation can outperform larger markets with limited budgets, emphasizing the importance of organizational efficiency.
Financial Commitment: Elevating the Payroll
One of the most pressing issues is the team’s payroll. Currently, the Nationals allocate roughly $60-65 million to their active roster-an amount that severely limits their competitiveness. To be a serious contender, the payroll should be increased to approximately $130 million by the start of the 2027 season.
Why this figure? It aligns with the payroll of the 20th-ranked team, the Kansas City Royals, which stands at about $130 million, according to MLB’s recent analyses. The Washington metropolitan area boasts a population of over 6.3 million and a median household income 43% higher than Kansas City’s, indicating a strong market capable of supporting higher spending.
Furthermore, despite a subpar team this year, the Nationals rank 20th in MLB attendance, underscoring their market’s spending power. The franchise’s current payroll, including deferred payments to players like Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, totals around $107.7 million-still below the level needed for sustained competitiveness.
Market Comparisons and Investment Strategies
Other smaller or less affluent markets, such as Baltimore, Detroit, and Minnesota, have payrolls exceeding the Nationals’ current spending, with present-value payrolls of $162 million, $143 million, and $142 million, respectively. Removing deferred obligations, the Nationals’ on-field spending is even lower, highlighting the need for increased investment.
Owners must accept the reality that baseball involves balancing lucrative contracts with less favorable deals. The key is to absorb some bad contracts while maintaining a payroll that allows the team to compete with the best in the league. The franchise’s rising value-appreciating by approximately $1.5 billion since the Lerners acquired it-provides the financial cushion necessary for such investments.
Building a Winning Roster: The WAR Approach
In today’s analytics-driven era, understanding how to assemble a competitive team involves metrics like WAR (Wins Above Replacement). A team aiming for 88-98 wins-enough to contend for a playoff spot-needs a roster with a combined WAR of about 40 to 50. This typically involves a handful of star players contributing significantly, with the rest of the roster providing neutral or minimal impact.
Historically, the Nationals’ best teams featured four to six stars with WARs averaging around 4.5 per player, including Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, and Anthony Rendon. Supporting players, such as Gio Gonzalez or Jayson Werth, added around 2.5 WAR each, while role players contributed smaller increments.
Current Prospects and the Path Forward
Encouragingly, the Nationals’ current crop of prospects-like James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, and CJ Abrams-are on pace to combine for nearly 20 WAR, all on modest contracts. This depth of talent provides a foundation for future success, but acquiring additional elite players will require strategic spending and ownership commitment.
Ownership’s Role in Sustained Success
While talented scouts and smart trades are vital, ownership must be willing to invest heavily in free agency and player development. Past acquisitions-such as Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Jayson Werth-demonstrate that a proactive payroll strategy can attract top-tier talent. The current luxury tax threshold of around $241 million offers ample room for strategic spending, far above the projected $60 million payroll for a lean 2027 roster.
Conclusion: The Cost of Winning
Doubling the current payroll isn’t an unreasonable ask; it’s a necessary step toward restoring the Nationals’ competitive stature. Such an investment would boost team performance, draw larger crowds, increase local TV ratings, and generate more revenue streams-ultimately justifying the expenditure.
Of course, this path involves risk. The question remains: how committed are the Lerners to playing hardball and transforming the franchise into a perennial contender? The choice is theirs: sell now for a hefty profit or invest heavily to reclaim their place among baseball’s elite. Since their 2019 championship parade, the family’s approach has been cautious-perhaps too cautious. But in the high-stakes world of Major League Baseball, bold moves are often the only way to win.