The 2024 typhoon season in the Philippines has been unlike any previous period, witnessing an extraordinary surge of six powerful storms striking the country within just 30 days. Several of these storms were active simultaneously across the region, marking a record-breaking event in the basin’s history. This clustering of intense weather systems has impacted over 13 million Filipinos, causing widespread destruction, loss of life, and severe strain on local infrastructure and resources.
On November 16, 2024, the Philippines faced the landfall of Typhoon Man-Yi, which brought maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h. This event capped an unprecedented month of severe weather activity. Man-Yi was the 24th named storm of the season and the sixth major typhoon to hit the Philippines within a single month. Typically, November averages only about three named storms in the entire basin, with just one reaching typhoon strength, according to NASA’s 2024 climate data.
The Japan Meteorological Agency recorded a historic phenomenon for November 2024: the simultaneous presence of four named storms in the Pacific Ocean, a record since record-keeping began in 1951. The storm sequence started with Tropical Cyclone Trami in late October, which caused fatalities and heavy rainfall across northern Philippines. This was followed by Typhoon Kong-Rey, which skirted north of the Philippines before making landfall in Taiwan, resulting in at least three deaths. Subsequently, Typhoon Xinying battered Luzon with winds reaching 240 km/h, prompting the evacuation of approximately 160,000 residents. Meanwhile, Typhoons Toraji and Usagi generated storm surges of up to three meters and brought relentless rains, compounding the disaster (BBC, 2024; ACT Alliance, 2024).
The cumulative impact of these storms inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure, with initial estimates indicating economic losses nearing half a billion USD (NDRRMC, 2024). The storms Trami and Kong-Rey alone resulted in over 160 fatalities, displaced more than 600,000 individuals, and affected upwards of 9 million people across the region (ACT Alliance, 2024).
In response to this extraordinary storm activity, scientists from the Philippines, the UK, and the Netherlands collaborated to investigate whether climate change influenced the frequency and intensity of these tropical cyclones. Their analysis focused on two key indicators: (1) the potential intensity (PI), which estimates the maximum possible wind speeds based on atmospheric and oceanic conditions during September to November, and (2) the likelihood of major storms making landfall, modeled through stochastic simulations of storm tracks and intensities. The results reveal significant insights into the changing climate patterns affecting the region.
Key Insights and Findings
- Multiple Storms in Rapid Succession: The occurrence of six typhoons impacting northern Luzon within a short span underscores the growing challenge of adapting to increasingly frequent and severe climate events. Over 13 million residents have been affected, with some areas experiencing at least three storms, creating a persistent cycle of vulnerability and exposure.
- Vulnerability of Urbanized Coastal Regions: While Luzon is relatively affluent compared to other parts of the Philippines, urban centers in the northern and central regions remain highly susceptible to flooding. Factors such as rapid urban expansion, river siltation, and deforestation exacerbate flood risks, especially in densely populated areas.
- Climate Change and Storm Intensity: The analysis indicates a notable increase in storm potential intensity. Specifically, the observed maximum wind speeds have become approximately seven times more likely, with the peak wind speeds of major storms rising by about 4 m/s (14.5 km/h). This trend aligns with climate models that project continued intensification as global temperatures rise.
- Attribution of Warming Effects: When comparing observational data with climate model simulations, researchers estimate that human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood of such intense storms by roughly 1.7 times. This corresponds to an increase of about 2 m/s (7.2 km/h) in storm wind speeds, a figure expected to grow as global temperatures climb further. Projections suggest that in a world warmed by 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, the intensity of such storms could increase by an additional 2 m/s, highlighting the escalating risk.
- Rising Frequency of Major Typhoons: Statistical models estimate that, under current warming conditions (about 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels), the chance of three or more major typhoons hitting the Philippines in a single year has increased from once every 45 years to approximately once every 6.5 to 25 years. In a hypothetical 2°C warmer climate, such an event could occur roughly every 12 years, representing a 25% increase in frequency due to fossil fuel emissions.
- Unprecedented Clustering of Storms: The rapid succession of six major storms impacting northern Philippines within a few weeks is an extremely rare event, emphasizing how climate change is making such extreme sequences more probable. These conditions are expected to become more common as warming continues, increasing the likelihood of multiple simultaneous or consecutive typhoons.
- Broader Impacts of Compound Events: The 2024 storm sequence exemplifies a broader pattern of consecutive extreme weather events, including floods in the Sahel region and hurricanes Helene and Milton. Such compound events challenge communities’ resilience and recovery efforts, underscoring the importance of proactive disaster preparedness and adaptive strategies.
- Policy and Resilience Strategies: The Philippines is advancing a forward-looking disaster risk management approach, including legislation to enable preemptive action based on early warning systems. This proactive framework aims to improve emergency response and resource allocation. However, the increasing frequency and severity of consecutive storms highlight the urgent need for enhanced resilience measures to safeguard communities against escalating climate risks.
