NATO stands at a critical crossroads in its long-standing history, facing profound questions about its future relevance and structure. As the alliance prepares for its upcoming summit in The Hague on June 24-25, 2025, key debates revolve around whether NATO can continue to rely on the United States for leadership and support, or if it should pivot towards becoming a predominantly European security organization. This moment signifies a potential turning point that could redefine NATO’s role in global defense and regional stability.
The past year has dramatically reshaped the geopolitical landscape, casting uncertainty over NATO’s cohesion. Increasingly vocal anti-NATO rhetoric from former U.S. President Donald Trump has eroded trust within the alliance, challenging the unity of its 31 member states, including major players like Germany, France, Canada, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Norway. Coupled with the Trump administration’s broader shift towards isolationism and unilateralism, these developments threaten to diminish the alliance’s collective strength, exposing its historical dependence on American military and political backing.
This upcoming summit is therefore pivotal. It could serve as a platform to unveil a comprehensive strategy for NATO’s transformation-either to adapt and thrive as a Europe-centered security framework or to acknowledge its obsolescence in a rapidly changing world. The core idea under consideration is whether NATO should be reimagined as a primarily European enterprise, capable of defending its own interests without exclusive reliance on the U.S.
Further Reading: Why the future of NATO matters for European security if the U.S. withdraws its troops – insights from a former submarine commander
If this vision materializes, historians of European defense might draw parallels with the Western European Union (WEU), a defense organization established in 1954 under the Paris Accords. The WEU was created to foster European security cooperation and to redefine relations with West Germany during the Cold War era. Although eventually integrated into NATO and the European Union, the WEU’s initial goal was to strengthen Europe’s independent security capacity within the Atlantic alliance framework.
The U.S. Perspective: Reluctance to Lead Europe
It is somewhat ironic that Trump’s criticisms of NATO member contributions echo a long-standing U.S. stance that has historically been wary of European nations taking the lead in their own defense. For decades, Washington has prioritized burden-sharing through increased defense spending and interoperability, but primarily to maintain a U.S.-dominated alliance rather than to foster genuine European strategic autonomy. According to defense analyst Max Bergman, U.S. policies have consistently aimed to ensure that European defense efforts serve American interests, rather than establishing a truly independent European security architecture.
As the U.S. appears to reduce its involvement in NATO, the alliance faces a critical choice: to decrease its dependence on Washington and focus more on European capabilities. A clear and ambitious mandate is essential to prevent NATO from becoming ineffective without U.S. support, especially given the ongoing threat posed by Russia’s military activities. Without such a mandate, opportunistic actors could exploit the situation, potentially leading to increased instability in Eastern Europe.
During his first term, Trump expressed skepticism about NATO’s costs and questioned whether the alliance’s funding structure was sustainable for the U.S. He proposed reducing U.S. troop rotations in Europe and cutting back on financial contributions, including the U.S. share of NATO’s $5 billion budget. These threats have persisted, with officials like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoing similar concerns, causing unease among NATO allies and raising fears of weakening the alliance’s cohesion.
Despite some recent increases in European defense budgets-marking a positive trend since 2023-the opportunity to overhaul NATO’s strategic focus to better address Ukraine’s security needs and broader European defense requirements has yet to be fully realized. The upcoming 2024 summit, marking NATO’s 75th anniversary, was expected to be a turning point, but concrete reforms remain in development.
Emerging European Defense Initiatives
In response to the shifting U.S. stance, a coalition of European nations led by France and the United Kingdom is actively working to bolster regional security and develop a post-conflict framework for Ukraine. This “coalition of the willing” aims to enhance military capabilities-covering logistics, intelligence, air, land, and sea forces-independent of U.S. support, with a long-term goal of reducing reliance on American military assets.
However, this transition is fraught with challenges. NATO’s current heavy dependence on U.S. military hardware-such as long-range precision missiles and heavy-lift aircraft-is a vulnerability that must be addressed. A well-defined strategy, including a clear transition plan, is crucial to prevent Russia from exploiting any instability during this period. Finland’s recent accession to NATO underscores the importance of a cohesive and carefully managed approach to European defense reform.
By the end of June, NATO members are expected to finalize a comprehensive plan that balances ongoing defense spending commitments, governance reforms, and strategic responses to the Ukraine conflict. While scrapping NATO altogether would be perilous, strengthening European capabilities within the alliance offers a pragmatic path forward-ensuring regional security without over-reliance on the United States.
In conclusion, NATO’s future hinges on its ability to adapt to a changing geopolitical environment. Whether it evolves into a more Europe-centric security alliance or faces further decline, the decisions made in the coming months will shape European stability for decades to come. Building a resilient, autonomous European defense structure within NATO’s framework appears to be the most viable strategy to safeguard regional interests and maintain peace in an increasingly unpredictable world.
