Washington, D.C. — Former President Donald Trump is striking a noticeably softer tone on Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent public remarks, a shift that comes as U.S. intelligence officials report a steady erosion of Russia’s military capabilities in its prolonged war in Ukraine.
According to multiple senior U.S. and NATO officials, internal assessments suggest Russia’s once-feared military is struggling with depleted resources, low morale, and severe logistical challenges. These weaknesses, officials say, are limiting Moscow’s ability to project power abroad — a fact that may be influencing Trump’s recalibrated stance.
In a campaign rally last week in Ohio, Trump referred to Putin as “a smart guy who’s found himself in a tough spot,” contrasting his earlier, more ambiguous comments on the Russian leader. “We don’t want war with Russia,” Trump said. “But we also don’t want to provoke them when they’re already cornered. It’s time to rethink the approach.”
Behind the Scenes: Intelligence Reports Shape Rhetoric
Current and former intelligence officials believe Trump’s change in tone could be tied to classified briefings or briefings from foreign policy advisors who maintain access to ongoing military intelligence. “It’s clear from our analysis that the Russian army is operating at diminished capacity,” one NATO official told Buumu. “Their equipment losses, economic constraints, and manpower issues are real. Trump may be using this moment to reframe the U.S.-Russia dynamic to his political advantage.”
These assessments come amid reports that Russia has lost more than 50% of its pre-2022 tank fleet, and continues to rely on outdated Soviet-era weaponry to replenish battlefield losses. Western sanctions have also slowed Russia’s ability to acquire key components for advanced missile systems and drones.
Domestic Political Calculus
Analysts say Trump’s softening rhetoric may also be strategic domestically. With the 2024 election cycle behind him and 2028 still in the distance, Trump is focusing on restoring his image as a pragmatic negotiator rather than a hawkish provocateur. “He’s trying to position himself as a dealmaker again — someone who can keep America out of endless wars while managing adversaries through diplomacy,” said Lisa Horowitz, a political strategist and former national security advisor.
The comments also appear aimed at contrasting with President Joe Biden’s continued support for Ukraine. Biden has pledged another $30 billion in military aid, while reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank, a move Trump has criticized as “reckless escalation.”
Ukraine War Drags On
Despite setbacks, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of resolution. Kyiv continues to push for more Western aid, while Russia has entrenched itself in occupied territories. But with battlefield momentum stalling and Western unity holding firm, some see Trump’s approach as an attempt to capitalize on war fatigue within the U.S.
“Americans are tired,” said pollster Amanda Klein. “Even voters who support Ukraine are wondering how long this will go on. Trump sees an opportunity to present an alternative vision.”
Criticism from Both Sides
Trump’s remarks have drawn criticism from both Republican hawks and Democratic leaders. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a longtime Trump ally, expressed concern: “Now is not the time to show weakness. Putin must face pressure, not praise.”
Meanwhile, Democrats accuse Trump of once again cozying up to an authoritarian leader. “Every time he talks about Putin, it sounds more like admiration than strategy,” said Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA). “It’s dangerous.”
Looking Ahead
With Russia’s military outlook increasingly bleak and the U.S. political landscape shifting, Trump’s comments mark a notable rhetorical shift — and potentially a preview of how he plans to approach foreign policy if he regains the presidency.
Whether this softer posture translates into actual policy proposals remains to be seen. But for now, it signals a complex recalibration by a political figure who has long defied conventional wisdom — and continues to shape global debate on America’s role in a changing world.
