Deciphering the Hidden Dynamics of Nonvoting Democrats in the 2024 Election
Uncovering subtle insights into the voting behaviors of Democratic-leaning nonvoters reveals complexities that challenge conventional narratives and offer new avenues for political strategy.
Rethinking Democratic Voter Engagement: Beyond the Binary
In the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election, Democratic strategists are grappling with perplexing questions: Did the party drift too far to the left, alienating moderate voters? Or did it fail to mobilize its base and sway swing voters effectively? The prevailing debate often simplifies these issues into a binary choice, but recent research suggests a more nuanced picture.
Some analysts, like Nate Cohn and David Shor, advocate for a “persuasion” approach. They argue that Democrats’ messaging and policy positions may have been too progressive, leading to disengagement among moderate or conservative-leaning voters within their coalition. Their solution? Emphasize centrist policies and economic bread-and-butter issues to rekindle support.
Conversely, progressive voices, including Waleed Shahid and Kali Holloway, contend that Democratic voter apathy stems from a lack of compelling, modern appeals. They posit that the party’s failure to energize its base-particularly those disillusioned or feeling disconnected-resulted in abstention. Holloway emphasizes that the decisive factor was the abstention of committed voters, not a shift in policy preferences.
New Data Illuminates Voter and Nonvoter Profiles
To navigate this debate, recent findings from the Cooperative Election Study (CES)-a comprehensive survey with over 60,000 respondents-offer valuable insights. This data allows for detailed analysis of who voted, who abstained, and their attitudes toward key issues, providing a clearer understanding of the electorate’s composition and preferences.
The Surprising Role of Democratic Nonvoters
Contrary to expectations, the majority of nonvoters in 2024 identified as Democrats, a revelation that challenges the assumption that nonvoting Democrats are predominantly moderates or conservatives. Political scientist Jake Grumbach and colleagues have demonstrated that these nonvoters tend to be more ideologically aligned with the Democratic Party than previously thought.
However, the critical question remains: Would these nonvoting Democrats have been persuaded to vote if the party had adopted a more progressive platform? The CES data suggests otherwise. Nonvoting Democrats generally exhibited less support for progressive policies than their voting counterparts. For example, they were significantly less likely to endorse banning assault rifles, supporting aid to Gaza, or believing that systemic racism and discrimination hinder Black Americans. Conversely, they showed greater support for border security and fossil fuel expansion, indicating a more conservative stance on social and economic issues.
Policy Preferences and Demographic Factors
Further analysis reveals that nonvoting Democrats tend to be less liberal overall-about 18 percentage points less likely to identify as “very liberal.” This suggests that their disengagement isn’t solely due to policy dissatisfaction with progressive stances but may involve other factors.
Interestingly, the data indicates that nonvoting Democrats are more diverse ethnically, with only 39% identifying as white, while 28% are Black and 20% Latino. This counters narratives that nonvoting Democrats are predominantly white liberals and highlights the importance of addressing racial and cultural differences within the party’s outreach efforts.
Attitudes Toward Social and Economic Issues
Examining attitudes on social issues reveals that nonvoting Democrats-regardless of race-are generally more socially conservative than voting Democrats. For instance, they are more likely to believe that racism remains a significant barrier to opportunity and tend to support stricter restrictions on abortion and gun rights. These ideological differences underscore the importance of tailored messaging that resonates across diverse demographic groups.
Economically, nonvoting Democrats are more likely to face financial hardship. They are nearly twice as likely to earn less than $50,000 annually, have lower educational attainment, and are more often employed in gig work or lacking union representation. These economic vulnerabilities suggest that emphasizing policies aimed at improving working-class lives-such as expanding healthcare, raising corporate taxes, and investing in infrastructure-could be more effective in mobilizing this segment.
The Path Forward: Focused Economic Messaging
The evidence points toward a strategic conclusion: To energize disengaged Democratic voters, the party should prioritize clear, credible economic narratives that address working-class concerns. While social issues remain vital, the data indicates that economic appeals-highlighting tangible improvements in daily life-are more likely to convert nonvoting Democrats into active voters.
This approach doesn’t require abandoning progressive principles but emphasizes aligning campaign messages with the economic realities of working Americans. Policies like expanding Medicaid, increasing minimum wages, and investing in public infrastructure resonate strongly with nonvoting Democrats’ priorities.
Demographic and Ideological Heterogeneity: A Key Challenge
Efforts to mobilize nonvoting Democrats must also recognize the ideological and racial diversity within this group. For example, Black and Latino nonvoters tend to be more socially conservative than their white counterparts, complicating one-size-fits-all messaging strategies. Campaigns must craft nuanced outreach that respects these differences while emphasizing shared economic interests.
Conclusion: A Tailored Approach for Future Elections
In sum, the recent data underscores that nonvoting Democrats are not a monolithic bloc driven solely by policy dissatisfaction with the party’s leftward shift. Instead, many are economically vulnerable, less ideologically aligned with progressive policies, and diverse in racial and social attitudes. To re-engage these voters, Democrats should focus on credible, economic-centered messaging that addresses their immediate concerns-without abandoning core values.
By doing so, the party can build a more inclusive and effective electoral coalition, ensuring that the voices of working-class Americans are heard and represented in future elections.
Authors:
Jared Abbott is the Director of the Center for Working-Class Politics.
Dustin Guastella is a research associate at the Center for Working-Class Politics and Operations Director for Teamsters Local 623.
